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(Plugin) Cycles 4D Release Date 15th November


INSYDIUM

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16 hours ago, 3D-Pangel said:

Okay.. just checked out the Cycles home page...so some of my questions have been answered.

I will admit that the yearly maintenance cost of 90 pounds is a bit excessive as that is 50% of the purchase cost and 60% if you are an X-Particles 3.5 user. Think about it.  Even C4D's Studio MSA is only 18% of the new license cost...so at those costs, you are strongly motivated to renew your MSA.  But at 50% of the cost, I could afford to miss a few years and just buy a completely new license in the future.

So how do you guys want your revenue stream to be managed in the future?  Consistent or lumpy? The development effort and your costs are all the same but I would imagine people will not signing up for the maintenance program unless they saw a huge benefit...and that benefit is tied to the Cycles development pace and Insydium's ability to quickly keep up.  So the big questions are: 1) If Cycles is cranking out a significant hunk of new and more powerful versions with each release (such that it is worth half our initial costs as that is what the maintenance program costs), 2) If Insydium can keep up and 3) Even if Cycles does pump out huge updates, that is a lot for Insydium to digest and integrate into the plugin so can it still be done quickly within the maintenance cycle.

That is a lot of "if's".  So for me, I would buy Cycles 4D now and then sit on it for at least 2 years....just to see how things go.  That might be smart given what MAXON is working on with their own GPU rendering solution (which also has similar features).  

Now, reduce the maintenance costs to 30 pounds (20% of the initial cost), and you have me for life.  So as a I said before, how do you want your revenue? Consistent or lumpy (30 pounds each year or "maybe" 180 pounds every 2+ years).  

I don't know. Charging 90 pound maintenance fee is a big bet for a new venture.

Dave

Well said Dave. Exactly my thoughts too.

There's the BS clause that if you delay buying maintenance by a couple of months your maintenance is back dated from the date you purchased it. It's a very competitive market to be playing games like that. Good luck to them...

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1 hour ago, Cutman said:

Well said Dave. Exactly my thoughts too.

There's the BS clause that if you delay buying maintenance by a couple of months your maintenance is back dated from the date you purchased it. It's a very competitive market to be playing games like that. Good luck to them...

I actually like that clause that they give you some time to rethink your maintenance plan after the deadline has passed.  But their whole maintenance pricing is just very risky because of so many things that need to be proven to the C4D community to just assume we would jump in each year for 50% of the original purchase price.  Here are (to me at least) the unknowns:

1) What is the Cycles release schedule?  Is it annually?  Bi-annually?  

2) How long after Cycles releases a new update will we see Cycles 4D be able adopt that new release?  1 month after release?  3 months?

3) How many new features does Cycles add with each new release.  The 2017 development plan looks pretty hefty, but that is just a plan.  How many of those features were originally included in the 2016 development plan?  Do they hit their development plan all the time?  Again, no idea.

4) Say that Cycles releases a new update towards the end of our maintenance plan but the maintenance plan expires before Cycles 4D gets updated?  What are we entitled to?  No word on how that works.  That may be why they have the 3 month grace period....but then what happens if Cycles 4D does not get updated after the 3 month grace period ends?

So Insydium is dependent on the release schedule of an open source program --- and I have no idea how consistent open source platforms release updates nor how much is in each release to make me feel that paying 50% of the purchase price for a maintenance plan is a wise decision.   That is out of Insydium's control which means it is out of our control as well.

So the smart thing to do is to wait and see.  And I mean wait for 1 year after your 12 month maintenance plan expires with the original purchase.  Waiting that extra year to see how this goes and then buying a new license does not cost you any more than paying 50% each year as that new license still comes with another 12 month maintenance plan.  

If the pace of updates or the amount in each update is not worth it to you, then you wait longer.

That is why I said "how does Insydium want to see their revenue?  Consistently year after year or in lumps?"  Lower the maintenance plan to something much more reasonable and people are more motivated to just keep signing up.  Keep it where it is and the motivation is to wait as buying a whole new license at some point in the future is less risky (because you now know what you are getting) and potentially cheaper if it is more that 2 years between purchases.  That is lumpy revenue because maybe they see some maintenance purchases in 1 year....but then again maybe not and they have to wait 2 or more years to see some additional revenue.  Hey, they development costs are the same to them regardless of our buying patterns. Businesses love predictable revenue models.  They can plan and invest on a predictable revenue stream.  This will NOT be predictable for the reasons I stated....so they take on risk.

I wish them the best of luck if they hold onto their current maintenance pricing.  But right now, given all the unknowns, it is a big bet they are making for a new business.

Dave

Sorry...but I simply do not have enough faith to be an atheist.

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I have faith in these guys. Xparticles is probably the plugin I enjoy and use most, so I trust that this will be a really solid release. 90 quid per year isn't crazy compared to some other plugins / renderers and if it lets them continue to maintain the plugin up to date with whatever Blender is doing, that'd be worth it alone.

Very exciting times. 

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2 minutes ago, grain said:

I have faith in these guys. Xparticles is probably the plugin I enjoy and use most, so I trust that this will be a really solid release. 90 quid per year isn't crazy compared to some other plugins / renderers and if it lets them continue to maintain the plugin up to date with whatever Blender is doing, that'd be worth it alone.

Very exciting times. 

I never doubted their ability to release a solid product.  But not all things are in Insydium's control...namely the pace of development of the Cycles render engine.  That needs to be proven to me to be pretty robust with some level of predictability regarding timing and features to make me pay $110 USD a year for a maintenance plan on a $220 USD plugin.  Never said I wouldn't purchase it.  Just said I would be cautious about purchasing the maintenance plan and favor re-purchasing new licenses every 2+ years until I am convinced that the maintenance plan provides a better value.

Now, that is just me....but if others are making the same value judgments then that is a risk to Insydium as their development costs are the same each year but their expected revenue becomes unpredictable.  Better all around to lower the maintenance costs so that it is predictable....that is, people keep signing up each years because the price is low enough that the value of doing so never comes into question given the unknowns about Cycles development schedule.

Dave

Sorry...but I simply do not have enough faith to be an atheist.

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All you can do is get it for the first year, see if you like it, and go from there. Who knows, the pound might be worth 80 cents next year and you'll be cheering! It was worth $1.50 about 4 months ago.. sigh.

I totally respect that for hobbyists and people not earning their living from doing this then that is a bit steep, and it's a real financial consideration. I'm fortunate enough to be doing this professionally so the cost of software is something I just factor in every year.

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TBH I wasn't super impressed with the release video and Cycles4D looks no better than the Physical renderer. Those fireflies all over the F22 and in the UFO/Henge scene do not 'sell' it to me at all and there's a lot of noise in the renders too.

 

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1 hour ago, Cutman said:

TBH I wasn't super impressed with the release video and Cycles4D

 

I totally agree. It's all over the place in terms of quality, some nice stuff (I love the Xparticles trails that look fibre optic at 1.24).. but man there's some really dodgy stuff in there. That jet flying around, the lamborghini.. fireflies, aliasing.. definitely not showreel worthy stuff.

 

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9 minutes ago, grain said:

I totally agree. It's all over the place in terms of quality, some nice stuff (I love the Xparticles trails that look fibre optic at 1.24).. but man there's some really dodgy stuff in there. That jet flying around, the lamborghini.. fireflies, aliasing.. definitely not showreel worthy stuff.

 

So if it is "all over the place" then is it the render engine or the user?  I agree that some of the stuff you pointed out is pretty bad (in particular the jet...what was going on with that reflectance) and the AA on the Lamborghini but the XP stuff is pretty good!

Yes...not all of it was show reel worthy and for a product launch they should have been more discerning but I don't think you should write off the Cycles render engine just yet unless you see a good quantity of Blender/Cycles show reels with the same issues.  Personally, I haven't looked as I am thinking of sitting this one out until I understand more about either or all of the following:  1) how to use the nodes from the demo/tutorials, 2) whether Cycles delivers on their development plan as promised and 3) what MAXON has in store with their GPU rendering solution.   So it could be awhile.

Dave

Sorry...but I simply do not have enough faith to be an atheist.

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Oh it's the artist using the software, totally. That reel seems to have 2 or 3 artists contributing and I think that the guy doing the particles (Mario Tran Phuc, probably) is awesome.

I haven't written it off, in fact I purchased it 2 hours ago. Still excited!

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